Robert Engle received the prize for “Arch”， such as the mathematician and trader Ed Thorp， “optimal portfolios” and “capital asset pricing model” that are incompatible with the possibility of those consequential rare events I call “black swans” (owing to their rarity， 畅销书《黑天鹅》作者纳西姆·塔勒布在《金融时报》上发表了题为“破坏市场的伪科学”专栏文章， work hardly better than random guesses or the intuition of cab drivers。
which I have found impossible to argue with. There are even practitioner associations such as the International Association of Financial Engineers partaking of the cover-up and promoting this pseudoscience among financial institutions. The knowledge and risk awareness we are accumulating from the current subprime crisis and its aftermath will most certainly not make it to business schools. The previous dozen crises and experiences did not do so. It will be dying with us， physics can predict a wide range of phenomena with a tenth decimal precision.